Parlor Spider...Step In, Little Fly

Insightful thoughts and/or rants from atop the soapbox from one who wishes to share the "right" opinion with everyone.

Sunday, August 02, 2009

Not So Random After All

It has been used to decide contention since...well, since slicing babies in half was deemed to be less than a good idea. The use of a coin flip was believed to be the most random method of determining a Solomon-like answer to the most troubling issue or settle any number of bar bets. It was used so predominantly because, having two sides, the coin was thought to have an equal chance of coming up either heads or tails. That, too, has had its share of contentious views: "tails never fails, etc." Now there is, er, scientific proof that one side actually DOES emerge on top 51% of the time. Which side? well, it depends.
According to Stanford University professors Persi Diaconis, Susan Holmes and Richard Mongomery, the final outcome is determined more often than not by which side is "up" when the coin is flipped...sort of. It is fully covered in their article entitled Dynamical Bias of the Coin Toss."
Confused? me, too, sort of.
The researchers developed an automated coin-flipping machine and determine through countless tests that the side which is "up" when the coin is flipped will end up in that position 51% of the time. Originally, there was some discussion having to do with the density of the coin (is "heads" heavier than "tails"?), but this theory was disproven as Mongomery developed a coin that was balsa wood on one side and metal on the other; the results were the same. However, there is one small caveat: there is more than one force at work when the coin is flipped manually (by humans, in other words): the coin not only rotates end over end, it also spins in a circular direction, much like a pizza being tossed. The more the coin "spins" in this manner, the more unpredictable its landing.
The last word on the subject according to the researchers?
"Be both the caller (so you can see which side is up) AND the flipper (so you can control the spin).
Got some time on your hands? Try the experiment yourself in order to verify its accuracy.
Good luck with your next argument! But don't bet the house that you'll be right.

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