Trick or...Trick?

Pallin' around with Palins

Gas dropped below $3 a gallon this weekend, and I suspect it may drop a few more cents in the coming days. For most Americans who don't ride their bikes to work like I do, this is a welcome sign which means things are getting back to what used to be normal...but wait, there's more! (no more oil, but more surprises in store). The stock market has the biggest single day turnaround since the Great Depression, so we're over the hump, right? My 401k and other investments will shoot right back to where they should be...right? Don't count on it. There are two factors at play here:

1. Halloween is coming. Trick or treat for kids is usually about treats. I'm afraid for us adults, it will be about tricks. Despite what politicians of all stripes say, there is very little more oil to find, no matter where one chooses to drill. Every oil producing nation in the world is past peak, and production is going down and has been for years! Not much left in Alaska, not much left in the North Atlantic, and what is available is very hard to get at, not being in the "oil window," expensive to extract and of poorer quality than what we have already taken to depletion. "Drill, baby, drill" will not mean, "Discover, baby, discover." The global economy runs on fossil fuels, and when that other shoe hits, the noise will be deafening. I hear you saying, "Well, if you know so much, smart guy, why is the price dropping? That must be a sign that there's more oil around than we know about."

2. It's an election year. In fact, I will be dumbfounded if the price of gas doesn't stay low until November 5th and then shoot back up to stratospheric numbers. That's just my prediction. Who stands to gain or lose the most in november? My guess is the oil companies. What better way to influence voters that there is NO elephant in the room than by making the most valuable (and scarce) commodity affordable for everyone again...if only until the political winds blow more favorably? And there's still China to contend with as well as all the Middle Eastern countries "run" by religious zealots who are fighting a holy war against the "Great Satan." They won't quit. Can we fight everybody? (excepting the Israelis, who will be on our side)

So, while we can all cling to the unreasonable hope that things are temporarily out of whack, we can at least have some cheap fun by downloading Halloween masks from the Chicago Tribune. Today's edition featured Joe Biden, tomorrow John McCain, and Wednesday Barack Obama. If you're quick enough, you might also be able to get Sarah Palin, as my pals did this weekend. Let's enjoy the treats while we can