Parlor Spider...Step In, Little Fly

Insightful thoughts and/or rants from atop the soapbox from one who wishes to share the "right" opinion with everyone.

Wednesday, December 03, 2008

What Are the Chances?




I was waiting for Professor Larson yesterday because we needed to discuss the lack of progress occurring with a mutual student. She was a few minutes late so I sat outside the office perusing material I needed to study for an upcoming final test (sounds like I'm the one taking the test, but, thankfully, not so). As she rounded the corner, she said, "Darrell, you surely don't look like a typical student." Uncertain of just what she meant by that (the way I was dressed? my excellent posture? the fact that I was on time?), I simply smiled and indicated that I'd been called atypical all my life; in fact, I considered that a good thing. Now comes news that I may be more typical than I would have thought.
After a tough day of pounding information into skulls, I like to sit back, eat crappy food and find interesting tidbits for the blog. Usually, it isn't about me (Lynn Dickey notwithstanding), but today is different, thanks to economist Betsey Stevenson.
Stevenson designed a widget for divorce360.com which will predict a person's chances of divorce now and within five years. Basic marital data like age, education, what age one was at marriage and how long the current union has lasted ultimately lead to a prediction of sorts. Before we get to the good stuff, here are some statistics that might seem interesting.
Age at marriage and education seem to be the most promising predictors of successful marriages. To wit, male college graduates in their 30's who have been married for five years are in a demographic in which just 5% of them have divorced to this point. Additionally, a mere 7% of them are expected to divorce within the next five years.
On the other hand, male high school graduates in their early 20's divorced at a rate of 19% within the first five years, and a whopping 37% of them are expected to sever the knot during the next five years! Wow! Understand, of course, that currently in this country, roughly 50% of all first marriages end in divorces, and the number skyrockets for second marriages. So, get married later after colelge, guys!
Anyhow,the report states clearly that there is a wide variation across demographics, and I would suspect socioeconomic status has a role to play as well. Now to me...
Males with more than a bachelor's degree who married before 1980 and were 20 when the blissful day occurred will be happy to know that a mere 44% of us have already divorced, but there is NO prediction for the next five years!
On the other hand, women in the same cohort as my sweetie (no, I'm not giving out THOSE statistics...she often reads this)have been divorced at a rate of 53%. There was a variation in the questions asked for women, and I'm not sure why, but then, I've never understood them, anyway...EVER
So, there you have it. My sweetie is in the minority and I AM TYPICAL for once.
Here's the link because I know you are dying to find out the facts for yourself:

http://www.divorce360.com/content/divorcecalculator.aspx

Also on the site (which seemed interesting, BTW) were helpful columns like "5 Tips For More 'Intimacy' in Marriage." Purely for research sake, I checked that out, but the tips didn't include anything really helpful like "Watch More TV Sports" or "How to Ask Politely if She'll Turn off the Vacuum While You're Napping." It was mostly girly stuff about relationships.
At least, for one brief moment, I was just like 56% of all the guys in my cohort in America. Happy day.

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home